The Chinese government ended the 76-day lockdown of Wuhan on April 8. Outside Wuhan, many local governments had already eased restrictions on movement and shifted their focus to reviving the economy. This letter documents several facts of the post-lockdown economic recovery in China. The main findings are summarized as follows.
(1) The official statistics suggest a quick recovery in manufacturing. The bouncing-back of manufacturing can also be seen in non-official data on city-to-city truck flows, active online job posts and air pollution emissions.
(2) Electricity consumption, retail sales and catering income suggest a much more persistent output decline in services. The business registration data also shows less firm entry in services.
(3) There is huge cross-region heterogeneity. Our data on visits to key locations and firm entry suggest a stronger recovery in the southeast region.
(4) Small businesses were hit much harder; their February sales shrank to about 35% of their 2019 level, but have been slowly recovering in March 2020. April will be the key month to determine the recovery speed.
We examine the stock market responses to two symbolic events in the outbreak of COVID-19: (1) the lockdown of Hubei province; and (2) the containment of the disease in China and its spread to overseas. Overall, market in China responded negatively (positively) to the first (second) event. Regression analysis reveals that, following the first event, firms with Hubei exposures earned significantly lower returns while those with foreign exposures earned significantly higher returns. Foreign exposures, however, had significantly negative effects on returns following the second event. The valuation effects of Hubei and foreign exposures also vary across firm ownership and industries.
On January 23 2020, the Chinese government locked down the city of Wuhan (Hubei Province). In subsequent days, similar measures were taken in other cities in Hubei and throughout China. This letter documents several facts of Chinese economy since the lockdown. The main findings are summarized as follows.
(1) The impacts of the lockdown on various economic activities, from flows of people and goods to aggregate output, were immediate and dramatic.
(2) Flows of people and goods outside Hubei have recovered to the pre-lockdown period. But daily visits to shopping malls and office buildings remain one third lower than the pre-lockdown level.
(3) The size and structure of consumption expenditure also experienced substantial adjustments.
【本期報告對上期報告中的數據進行了更新，補充了來自手機定位和電商大數據分析的結果，並對“封城”之後兩個月中國經濟的重要特徵進行總結。】
1月23日，中國政府為控制COVID-19新型冠狀病毒的傳播封鎖了湖北省武漢市。隨後幾天，湖北省其他城市、中國其他省市均相繼採取了封鎖措施。本文記錄了封城以來中國經濟的一些事實。主要發現總結如下：
（1）封城對各類經濟活動（從人口、貨物的流動到經濟總產出）的影響是直接且巨大的。
（2）湖北以外的人口和貨物流動已基本恢復到封鎖前的水準。但商場、辦公樓等場所的日度人口流量仍比封鎖前的水準低三分之一。
（3）消費支出的規模和結構發生了重大改變。
The Chinese government ended the 76-day lockdown of Wuhan on April 8. Outside Wuhan, many local governments had already eased restrictions on movement and shifted their focus to reviving the economy. This letter documents several facts of the post-lockdown economic recovery in China. The main findings are summarized as follows.
(1) The official statistics suggest a quick recovery in manufacturing. The bouncing-back of manufacturing can also be seen in non-official data on city-to-city truck flows, active online job posts and air pollution emissions.
(2) Electricity consumption, retail sales and catering income suggest a much more persistent output decline in services. The business registration data also shows less firm entry in services.
(3) There is huge cross-region heterogeneity. Our data on visits to key locations and firm entry suggest a stronger recovery in the southeast region.
(4) Small businesses were hit much harder; their February sales shrank to about 35% of their 2019 level, but have been slowly recovering in March 2020. April will be the key month to determine the recovery speed.
We examine the stock market responses to two symbolic events in the outbreak of COVID-19: (1) the lockdown of Hubei province; and (2) the containment of the disease in China and its spread to overseas. Overall, market in China responded negatively (positively) to the first (second) event. Regression analysis reveals that, following the first event, firms with Hubei exposures earned significantly lower returns while those with foreign exposures earned significantly higher returns. Foreign exposures, however, had significantly negative effects on returns following the second event. The valuation effects of Hubei and foreign exposures also vary across firm ownership and industries.
On January 23 2020, the Chinese government locked down the city of Wuhan (Hubei Province). In subsequent days, similar measures were taken in other cities in Hubei and throughout China. This letter documents several facts of Chinese economy since the lockdown. The main findings are summarized as follows.
(1) The impacts of the lockdown on various economic activities, from flows of people and goods to aggregate output, were immediate and dramatic.
(2) Flows of people and goods outside Hubei have recovered to the pre-lockdown period. But daily visits to shopping malls and office buildings remain one third lower than the pre-lockdown level.
(3) The size and structure of consumption expenditure also experienced substantial adjustments.
【本期報告對上期報告中的數據進行了更新，補充了來自手機定位和電商大數據分析的結果，並對“封城”之後兩個月中國經濟的重要特徵進行總結。】
1月23日，中國政府為控制COVID-19新型冠狀病毒的傳播封鎖了湖北省武漢市。隨後幾天，湖北省其他城市、中國其他省市均相繼採取了封鎖措施。本文記錄了封城以來中國經濟的一些事實。主要發現總結如下：
（1）封城對各類經濟活動（從人口、貨物的流動到經濟總產出）的影響是直接且巨大的。
（2）湖北以外的人口和貨物流動已基本恢復到封鎖前的水準。但商場、辦公樓等場所的日度人口流量仍比封鎖前的水準低三分之一。
（3）消費支出的規模和結構發生了重大改變。
