Containing the COVID-19 pandemic by non-pharmacological interventions is costly. Using high-frequency, city-to-city truck flow data, this paper estimates the economic cost of lockdown in China, a stringent but effective policy. By comparing the truck flow change in the cities with and without lockdown, we find that a one-month full-scale lockdown causally reduces the truck flows connected to the locked down city in the month by 54%, implying a decline of city’s real income with the same proportion in a gravity model of city-to-city trade. We also structurally estimate the cost of lockdown in the gravity model, where the effects of lockdown can spill over to other cities through trade linkages. Imposing full-scale lockdown on four largest cities for one month would reduce the national real GDP by 8.6%, of which 11% is contributed by the spillover effects.
This letter documents several facts of China’s post-lockdown economic recovery in April and May. The main findings are summarized as follows.
(1) Truck flows and online consumption suggest a strong recovery.
(2) The recovery of online job posts stagnated.
(3) Smaller firms cut online job posts more dramatically in the first quarter. Such asymmetry became less pronounced in April.
4月8日中國政府結束了對武漢長達76的封鎖。除武漢外，許多地方政府已經放寬了對出行的限制，並將重心轉移到了經濟復蘇上。這篇報告記錄了中國封鎖後期經濟復蘇的若干事實。主要發現概括如下。
(1) 官方統計資料表明製造業正在快速復蘇。製造業的反彈可以從城市間卡車流量、線上崗位發佈和空氣污染排放等非官方資料中找到證據。
(2) 電力消費、零售額和餐飲收入表明服務業產出的下降幅度更大。公司註冊登記資料顯示，近期很少有公司進入服務領域。
(3) 跨區域異質性很大。移動設備訪問地點和公司註冊登記資料表明，東南地區的復蘇更為強勁。
(4) 小企業遭受的衝擊更大，2月份小企業銷售收入縮水至2019年同期的35%左右，3月來一直在緩慢復蘇，4月將是決定復蘇速度的關鍵月份。
本文記錄了四、五月中國解封後期經濟復蘇的若干事實。主要發現概括如下：
（1） 卡車貨運流量和線上消費呈現強勁的復蘇趨勢。
（2） 線上崗位發佈的恢復速度放緩、陷入停滯。
（3） 小型企業一季度的線上崗位發佈數大幅下降。四月大型企業和小型企業線上上崗位發佈上的差異有所縮小。
The Chinese government ended the 76-day lockdown of Wuhan on April 8. Outside Wuhan, many local governments had already eased restrictions on movement and shifted their focus to reviving the economy. This letter documents several facts of the post-lockdown economic recovery in China. The main findings are summarized as follows.
(1) The official statistics suggest a quick recovery in manufacturing. The bouncing-back of manufacturing can also be seen in non-official data on city-to-city truck flows, active online job posts and air pollution emissions.
(2) Electricity consumption, retail sales and catering income suggest a much more persistent output decline in services. The business registration data also shows less firm entry in services.
(3) There is huge cross-region heterogeneity. Our data on visits to key locations and firm entry suggest a stronger recovery in the southeast region.
(4) Small businesses were hit much harder; their February sales shrank to about 35% of their 2019 level, but have been slowly recovering in March 2020. April will be the key month to determine the recovery speed.
Containing the COVID-19 pandemic by non-pharmacological interventions is costly. Using high-frequency, city-to-city truck flow data, this paper estimates the economic cost of lockdown in China, a stringent but effective policy. By comparing the truck flow change in the cities with and without lockdown, we find that a one-month full-scale lockdown causally reduces the truck flows connected to the locked down city in the month by 54%, implying a decline of city’s real income with the same proportion in a gravity model of city-to-city trade. We also structurally estimate the cost of lockdown in the gravity model, where the effects of lockdown can spill over to other cities through trade linkages. Imposing full-scale lockdown on four largest cities for one month would reduce the national real GDP by 8.6%, of which 11% is contributed by the spillover effects.
This letter documents several facts of China’s post-lockdown economic recovery in April and May. The main findings are summarized as follows.
(1) Truck flows and online consumption suggest a strong recovery.
(2) The recovery of online job posts stagnated.
(3) Smaller firms cut online job posts more dramatically in the first quarter. Such asymmetry became less pronounced in April.
4月8日中國政府結束了對武漢長達76的封鎖。除武漢外，許多地方政府已經放寬了對出行的限制，並將重心轉移到了經濟復蘇上。這篇報告記錄了中國封鎖後期經濟復蘇的若干事實。主要發現概括如下。
(1) 官方統計資料表明製造業正在快速復蘇。製造業的反彈可以從城市間卡車流量、線上崗位發佈和空氣污染排放等非官方資料中找到證據。
(2) 電力消費、零售額和餐飲收入表明服務業產出的下降幅度更大。公司註冊登記資料顯示，近期很少有公司進入服務領域。
(3) 跨區域異質性很大。移動設備訪問地點和公司註冊登記資料表明，東南地區的復蘇更為強勁。
(4) 小企業遭受的衝擊更大，2月份小企業銷售收入縮水至2019年同期的35%左右，3月來一直在緩慢復蘇，4月將是決定復蘇速度的關鍵月份。
本文記錄了四、五月中國解封後期經濟復蘇的若干事實。主要發現概括如下：
（1） 卡車貨運流量和線上消費呈現強勁的復蘇趨勢。
（2） 線上崗位發佈的恢復速度放緩、陷入停滯。
（3） 小型企業一季度的線上崗位發佈數大幅下降。四月大型企業和小型企業線上上崗位發佈上的差異有所縮小。
The Chinese government ended the 76-day lockdown of Wuhan on April 8. Outside Wuhan, many local governments had already eased restrictions on movement and shifted their focus to reviving the economy. This letter documents several facts of the post-lockdown economic recovery in China. The main findings are summarized as follows.
(1) The official statistics suggest a quick recovery in manufacturing. The bouncing-back of manufacturing can also be seen in non-official data on city-to-city truck flows, active online job posts and air pollution emissions.
(2) Electricity consumption, retail sales and catering income suggest a much more persistent output decline in services. The business registration data also shows less firm entry in services.
(3) There is huge cross-region heterogeneity. Our data on visits to key locations and firm entry suggest a stronger recovery in the southeast region.
(4) Small businesses were hit much harder; their February sales shrank to about 35% of their 2019 level, but have been slowly recovering in March 2020. April will be the key month to determine the recovery speed.
