This article analyzes cross‐border marriages between mainland China and Hong Kong (HK). We examine the effects of a reduction in cross‐border marriage costs following an increase in marriage‐migration quotas and the handover of HK to China. We find that cross‐border marriages mainly involve men from the low tail of the HK attribute distribution. We also find that HK women's position in the marriage market and within households deteriorated following the reduction in cross‐border marriage costs and that their disadvantaged position exerts an incentive effect on their labor market behavior. These outcomes are consistent with our matching model.
In 2009 and 2010, China undertook a 4 trillion Yuan fiscal stimulus, roughly equivalent to 12 percent of annual GDP. The "fiscal" stimulus was largely financed by off-balance sheet companies (local financing vehicles) that borrowed and spent on behalf of local governments. The off-balance sheet financial institutions continued to grow after the stimulus program ended at the end of 2010. After the end of the stimulus program, spending by these off balance sheet companies accounted for roughly 5% of annual GDP. The off-balance spending by local governments is likely responsible for a 5 percentage point increase in the aggregate investment rate and part of the 7 to 8 percentage point decline in current account surplus. Finally, we provide suggestive evidence that local governments used their new access to financial resources to facilitate access to capital to favored private firms, which potentially worsens the overall efficiency of capital allocation. The long run effect of off-balance sheet spending by local governments may be a permanent decline in the growth rate of aggregate productivity and GDP.
This paper investigates the tariff pass-through mechanism and the distributional effects of trade liberalization in urban China. We study how market structure, specifically the size of the private sector, affects tariff pass-through, and how this mechanism influenced the extent to which households benefited from the trade liberalization. Our results suggest that a higher share of private sector in Chinese cities is associated with higher levels of tariff pass-through rates. This effect works both through the distribution sector, and through the production of final goods. By incorporating the changes in consumer prices of tradable and non-tradable goods, we next investigate the impact of WTO accession on household welfare through changes in the cost of consumption. The results show that WTO accession of China was associated with welfare gains to almost every household across the per capita expenditure spectrum, and that the distributional effect is strongly pro-poor. The average welfare gain of WTO accession on Chinese households is estimated to be 7.3%. The distributional effect through higher levels of privatization was also pro-poor, indicating that privatization enhanced the pro-poor impact of trade liberalization.
Using a newly constructed panel dataset that covers the 14-year period from 1997 to 2011 for more than 100 villages in China, this study analyzes the dynamic effect of rural-to-urban migration on inequality in source villages. Given that income inequality is time persisting, we use a system GMM framework. We found that the dynamic relationship between migration and income inequality is inversely U-shaped. Specifically, contemporary migration increases income inequality, whereas lagged migration has a strong income inequality-reducing effect on the sending villages. A 50 percent increase in the lagged migration rate translates into a one-ninth to one-tenth standard deviation reduction in income inequality.
Many countries try to mitigate business cycle fluctuations by regulating the activities of their banks. We develop a theoretical framework to study the endogenous response of the banking sector and the implications for the aggregate economy. Under fairly mild conditions, we find that stricter liquidity standards can generate unintended credit booms as attempts to arbitrage the regulation change the allocation of savings across banks and the allocation of lending across markets. We then apply our framework to study recent events in China. We show that a regulatory push to increase bank liquidity and cap loan-to-deposit ratios in the late 2000s accounts for one-third of China ’s unprecedented credit boom and one-half of the increase in interbank interest rates over the same period. We also find strong empirical support for the cross-sectional differences between big and small banks predicted by the model.
This article analyzes cross‐border marriages between mainland China and Hong Kong (HK). We examine the effects of a reduction in cross‐border marriage costs following an increase in marriage‐migration quotas and the handover of HK to China. We find that cross‐border marriages mainly involve men from the low tail of the HK attribute distribution. We also find that HK women's position in the marriage market and within households deteriorated following the reduction in cross‐border marriage costs and that their disadvantaged position exerts an incentive effect on their labor market behavior. These outcomes are consistent with our matching model.
In 2009 and 2010, China undertook a 4 trillion Yuan fiscal stimulus, roughly equivalent to 12 percent of annual GDP. The "fiscal" stimulus was largely financed by off-balance sheet companies (local financing vehicles) that borrowed and spent on behalf of local governments. The off-balance sheet financial institutions continued to grow after the stimulus program ended at the end of 2010. After the end of the stimulus program, spending by these off balance sheet companies accounted for roughly 5% of annual GDP. The off-balance spending by local governments is likely responsible for a 5 percentage point increase in the aggregate investment rate and part of the 7 to 8 percentage point decline in current account surplus. Finally, we provide suggestive evidence that local governments used their new access to financial resources to facilitate access to capital to favored private firms, which potentially worsens the overall efficiency of capital allocation. The long run effect of off-balance sheet spending by local governments may be a permanent decline in the growth rate of aggregate productivity and GDP.
This paper investigates the tariff pass-through mechanism and the distributional effects of trade liberalization in urban China. We study how market structure, specifically the size of the private sector, affects tariff pass-through, and how this mechanism influenced the extent to which households benefited from the trade liberalization. Our results suggest that a higher share of private sector in Chinese cities is associated with higher levels of tariff pass-through rates. This effect works both through the distribution sector, and through the production of final goods. By incorporating the changes in consumer prices of tradable and non-tradable goods, we next investigate the impact of WTO accession on household welfare through changes in the cost of consumption. The results show that WTO accession of China was associated with welfare gains to almost every household across the per capita expenditure spectrum, and that the distributional effect is strongly pro-poor. The average welfare gain of WTO accession on Chinese households is estimated to be 7.3%. The distributional effect through higher levels of privatization was also pro-poor, indicating that privatization enhanced the pro-poor impact of trade liberalization.
Using a newly constructed panel dataset that covers the 14-year period from 1997 to 2011 for more than 100 villages in China, this study analyzes the dynamic effect of rural-to-urban migration on inequality in source villages. Given that income inequality is time persisting, we use a system GMM framework. We found that the dynamic relationship between migration and income inequality is inversely U-shaped. Specifically, contemporary migration increases income inequality, whereas lagged migration has a strong income inequality-reducing effect on the sending villages. A 50 percent increase in the lagged migration rate translates into a one-ninth to one-tenth standard deviation reduction in income inequality.
Many countries try to mitigate business cycle fluctuations by regulating the activities of their banks. We develop a theoretical framework to study the endogenous response of the banking sector and the implications for the aggregate economy. Under fairly mild conditions, we find that stricter liquidity standards can generate unintended credit booms as attempts to arbitrage the regulation change the allocation of savings across banks and the allocation of lending across markets. We then apply our framework to study recent events in China. We show that a regulatory push to increase bank liquidity and cap loan-to-deposit ratios in the late 2000s accounts for one-third of China ’s unprecedented credit boom and one-half of the increase in interbank interest rates over the same period. We also find strong empirical support for the cross-sectional differences between big and small banks predicted by the model.
