The Chinese University of Hong Kong-Tsinghua University Joint Research Center for Chinese Economy 清華大學-香港中文大學中國經濟聯合研究中心 - Fluctuation and Reform: a Tale of Two RMB Markets The Chinese University of Hong Kong-Tsinghua University <br/>Joint Research Center for Chinese Economy 清華大學-香港中文大學中國經濟聯合研究中心
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Fluctuation and Reform: a Tale of Two RMB Markets
Yousha Liang, Kang Shi, Lisheng Wang, Juanyi (Jenny) Xu

Focusing on the pricing differential between the Renminbi onshore and offshore exchange rates, this paper characterizes the exchange rate fluctuations and investigates the effect of recent Renminbi currency market reforms. Using GARCH models, we find volatility clustering phenomena and leverage effect in the pricing differential. To estimate the effect of recent Renminbi currency market reforms on the linkage between the onshore and offshore markets, we construct an ARMA-Intervention model for distinguishing the short-run and long-run effects. These reforms are proved to either enlarge or shrink the pricing differential in the long run. We also find that recent Renminbi currency market reforms all increase the volatility of the pricing differential between the onshore and offshore exchange rates.

1026
0021
Fluctuation and Reform: a Tale of Two RMB Markets
Yousha Liang, Kang Shi, Lisheng Wang, Juanyi (Jenny) Xu

Focusing on the pricing differential between the Renminbi onshore and offshore exchange rates, this paper characterizes the exchange rate fluctuations and investigates the effect of recent Renminbi currency market reforms. Using GARCH models, we find volatility clustering phenomena and leverage effect in the pricing differential. To estimate the effect of recent Renminbi currency market reforms on the linkage between the onshore and offshore markets, we construct an ARMA-Intervention model for distinguishing the short-run and long-run effects. These reforms are proved to either enlarge or shrink the pricing differential in the long run. We also find that recent Renminbi currency market reforms all increase the volatility of the pricing differential between the onshore and offshore exchange rates.

1026